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Structured Expert Judgment

Quantifying uncertainty or trying to make predictions on subject for which there is an evident lack of data can be challenging. Hence turning into experts seems reasonable, given the consideration that these may not agree on their judgments. The Structured Experts Judgment Method or Cooke’s Method, named after Roger Cooke who formulated such methodology, aims at treating experts judgment as scientific data in a methodologically transparent way. Structured judgment method may pursue three goals according to Cooke & Gossens (2008):

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